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Swot analysis come tecnica per i decision makers della verifica di democrazia partecipativa
Titolo Rivista: FUTURIBILI 
Autori/Curatori:  Alberto Gasparini 
Anno di pubblicazione:  2008 Fascicolo: 1 La previsione italiana tra Europa e Mediterraneo. Alberto Gasparini, Umberto Gori (a cura di) Lingua: Italiano 
Numero pagine:  53 P. 7-59 Dimensione file:  596 KB
DOI:  10.3280/FU2008-001002
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Swot Analysis as a technique for decision makers in the assessment of democratic practices - Prediction involves a given point in future time (t1), and the process by means of which the future time t1 may come about, starting from the present time (t0), lies at the heart of prediction. The author analyses what happens in that process - description of the phenomenon, identification of its causes, reconstruction of the mechanisms, strategies in which to frame the actions required for the desired change in the time t0, assessment of the consequences and evaluation of good practices. The method to achieve the process is a blend of descriptions, causal analyses and evaluations, but above all indications to decision makers to identify the best practices - the scenario’s internal and external variables and the strategies in which to frame actions. The author uses SWOT analysis to build four scenarios, each corresponding to a democratic model. When subjected to SWOT analysis, the four democratic models yield three models of democracy, each implying a type of strategy for the action of decision makers. These types are defined as: pedagogic function, synthesis of stakeholders’ values and coordinated projects of discussion, decision and management. Tasks and limits of prediction in the intelligence cycle, by Umberto Gori This text examines the question of prediction with particular reference to international relations. Observations about the turbulent and complex nature of the present-day international system are followed by an analysis of the problems facing the prediction of a chaotic system. The discussion then turns to intelligence analysis and the tasks and limits of prediction in the intelligence cycle, and is completed with a review of the methods useful for understanding political systems and the prediction of decisions. The conclusions make brief reference to a number of new discoveries and interpretations in advanced physics to throw doubt on our ability to grasp the profound essence of reality. Futuribili, 1/2008

Alberto Gasparini, in "FUTURIBILI" 1/2008, pp. 7-59, DOI:10.3280/FU2008-001002


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