Click here to download

Simulation and crime. A scenario modeling
Author/s:  Barbara Sonzogni 
Year:  2018 Issue: 117 Language: Italian 
Pages:  25 Pg. 20-44 FullText PDF:  330 KB
DOI:  10.3280/SR2018-117002
(DOI is like a bar code for intellectual property: to have more infomation:  clicca qui   and here 

The use of the first simulative methods in the social sciences dates back to the 1950s and 1960s, but its growth and real diffusion was in the early nineties. This method has however been coupled with traditional methods of research for the study of criminal phenomena only in recent times. Surpassing the traditional statistical technique of logistic regression, this type of model has proved to be suitable for capturing complex and non-linear systems, such as crime. The recent increase of simulative modeling in criminology has led to the creation of numerous models, of which a comprehensive overview is provided.

  1. R. Axtell (2000), «Why Agents? On the Varied Motivations for Agent computing in the Social Science», Center on Social and Economic Dynamics Working Paper, 17, pp. 1-23.
  2. M. Baccara, B.I. Heski (2008), «How to organize Crime», Review of Economic Studies, 75, pp. 1039-67.
  3. J. Baldwin, A.E. Bottoms (1976), The Urban Criminal: A Study in Sheffield, London Tavistock Publications.
  4. P. Berger, T. Luckmann (1966), The Social Construction of Reality: A Treatise in the Sociology of Knowledge, Garden City (NY), Doubleday & Co.; tr. it., La realtà come costruzione sociale, Bologna, il Mulino, 1969.
  5. D.J. Birks (2005), Computational Criminology: A Multi-Agent Simulation of Volume Crime Activity, in Proceedings British Society of Criminology Conference, Leeds, University of Leeds.
  6. D.J. Birks (2012), Computational Agent-Based Models of Offending: Assessing the Generative Sufficiency of Opportunity-Based Explanations of the Crime Event, Thesis (PhD Doctorate), Brisbane, Griffith University.
  7. D.J. Birks, S. Donkin, M. Wellsmith (2008), Synthesis over Analysis: Towards an Ontology for Volume Crime Simulation, in Liu ed Eck (eds.) (2008).
  8. D.J. Birks, M. Townsley, A. Stewart (2012), «Generative Explanations of Crime: Using Simulation to test Criminological Theory», Criminology, 50, pp. 221-54,
  9. P.M. Blau (1964), Exchange and Power in Social Life, New York, Wiley.
  10. E. Bonabeau (2002), Agent-based Modeling: Methods and Techniques for simulating Human Systems. Arthur M. Sackler Colloquium of the National Academy of Sciences, Irvine (CA), National Academy of Sciences.
  11. M. Bonolis (a c. di) (2010), Recidività e reinserimento. L’affidamento in prova al servizio sociale nel Lazio, Acireale-Roma, Bonanno.
  12. M. Bonolis, P. Laurano, B. Sonzogni (2014), Le «ragioni» del crimine. Devianza e razionalità soggettiva, Roma, Carocci.
  13. T. Bosse, C. Gerritsen (2010), An Agent-Based Framework to Support Crime Prevention, in W. van der Hoek, G.A. Kaminka, Y. Lespéranche, M. Luck, S. Sen (eds.), Proceeding of 9th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (Aamas 2010), May, 10-14 2010, Toronto (Canada).
  14. A.E. Bottoms, A. Claytor, P. Wiles (1992), Housing Markets and Residential Community Crime Careers: A Case Study from Sheffield, in N. Fyve, D. Evans, D. Herbert (eds.) (1992).
  15. R. Boudon (1987), «Razionalità e teoria dell’azione», Rassegna Italiana di Sociologia, 2, pp. 175-204.
  16. P.L. Brantingham, P.J. Brantingham (2004), «Computer Simulation as a Tool for Environmental Criminologists», Security Journal, XVII, 1, pp. 21-30.
  17. P.L. Brantingham, P.J. Brantingham, U. Glasser (2005), «Computer Simulation as a Research Tool in Criminologyand Criminal Justice», Criminal Justice Matter, 58, pp. 19-20.
  18. P.L. Brantingham, U. Glasser, U. Jackson, B. Kinney, M. Vajihollahi (2008), Mastermind: Computational Modelling and Spatitemporal Aspects of Crime in Urban Environments, in Liu ed Eck (eds.) (2008).
  19. P.L. Brantingham, U. Glasser, B. Kinney, K. Singh, M. Vajihollahi (2005a), Modeling Urban Crime Patterns: Viewing Multi-agent Systems as Abstract State Machines, in Proceedings of the 12th International Workshop on Abstract State Machines, Paris.
  20. P.L. Brantingham, U. Glasser, B. Kinney, K. Singh, M. Vajihollahi (2005b), «A Computational Model for simulating Spatial Aspects of Crime in Urban Environments», Ieee International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 4, pp. 3667-74.
  21. J.A. Carr (2003), The Geographies of Young People, Crime and Social Exclusion, PhD thesis, Leeds, University of Leeds.
  22. C.J.E. Castle, A.T. Crooks (2006), «Principles and Concepts of Agent-based Modelling for developing Geospatial Simulations», Ucl Centre For Advanced Spatial Analysis Working Papers Series, 110.
  23. M. Ciampi (2017), «Teorie sociologiche della devianza», Sociologia, LI, 3, pp. 110-21.
  24. R.V. Clarke, M. Felson (eds.) (1993), Routine Activity and Rational Choice: Advances in Criminological Theory, New Brunswick (NJ), Transaction Publishers.
  25. R.A. Cloward, L. Ohlin (1959), «Illegitimate Means, Anomie and Deviant Behavior», American Sociological Review, 24, pp. 164-76.
  26. L.E. Cohen, M. Felson (1979), «Social Change and Crime Rate Trends: A Routine Activity Approach», American Sociological Review, 44, pp. 588-608.
  27. L.E. Cohen, R. Machalek (1988), «A General Theory of Expropriative Crime: An Evolutionary Ecological Approach», The American Journal of Sociology, XCI, 3, pp. 465-501.
  28. E.G. Cohn (1993), «The Prediction of Police Calls for Service: The Influence of Weather and Temporal Variables on Rape and Domestic Violence», Journal of Environmental Psychology, XIII, 1, pp. 71-83.
  29. E.G. Cohn (1996), «The Effect of Weather and Temporal Variations on Calls for Police Service», American Journal of Police, XV, 1, pp. 23-43.
  30. J.S. Coleman (1962), Analysis of Social Structure and Simulation of Social Processes with Electronic Computers, in Guetzkow (ed.) (1962).
  31. J.S. Coleman (1986), Micro Foundations and Macrosocial Theory, in S. Lindenberg, J.S. Coleman, S. Nowak (eds.), Approachaes to Social Theory, New York, Russel Sage Foundation.
  32. R. Collins (1988), Theoretical Sociology, Orlando, Harcout Brace Jovanovich; tr. it., Teorie sociologiche, Bologna, il Mulino, 1992.
  33. K.S. Cook, R.M. Emerson, M.R. Gillmore, T.S. Source (1983), «The Distribution of Power in Exchange Networks», American Journal of Sociology, 89, pp. 275-305.
  34. C.H. Cooley (1909), Social Organization, New York, Charles Scribner’s Sons; tr. it., L’organizzazione sociale, Milano, Comunità, 1963.
  35. A. Dray, L. Mazzerolle, P. Perez, A. Ritter (2008), «Policing Australia’s “Heroin drought”: Using an Agent-based Model to simulate Alternative Outcomes», Journal Experimental Criminology, IV, 3, pp. 267-87.
  36. È. Durkheim (1895), Les règles de la methode sociologique, Paris, Alcan; tr. it., Le regole del metodo sociologico, Torino, Einaudi, 2008.
  37. J.M. Epstein, J.D. Steinbruner, M.T. Parker (2001). Modeling Civil Violence: An Agent-based Computational Approach, Washington DC, Center on Social and Economic Dynamics, Brookings.
  38. N. Fyve, D. Evans, D. Herbert (eds.) (1992), Crime, Policing and Place, in Environmental Criminology, London, Routledge.
  39. H. Garfinkel (1967), Studies in Ethnometodology, Englewood Cliffs, Prentice-Hall.
  40. J.P. Gibbs (1968), «Crime, Punishment and Deterrence», Southwestern Social Science Quarterly, 48, pp. 515-30.
  41. N. Gilbert. P. Terna (2000), «How to build and use Agent-based Models in Social Science», Mind & Society, 1, pp. 16-20.
  42. E. Goffman (1959), The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life, New York, Doubleday; tr. it., La vita quotidiana come rappresentazione, Bologna, il Mulino, 1969.
  43. E. Goffman (1961), Asylums, New York, Doubleday; tr. it., Asylums, Torino, Einaudi, 1968.
  44. E. Goffman (1967), Interaction Ritual, New York, Doubleday; tr. it., Il rituale dell’interazione, Bologna, il Mulino, 1988.
  45. Groff E.R. (2007a), «Simulation for Theory Testing and Experimentation: An Example using Routine Activity Theory and Street Robbery», Journal of Quantitative Criminology, XXIII, 2, pp. 75-103.
  46. Groff E.R. (2007b), «”Situating” Simulation to model Human Spatio-temporal Interactions: An Example using Crime Events», in Transactions in Gis, XI, 4, pp. 507-30.
  47. Groff E.R. (2008), «Adding the Temporal and Spatial Aspects of Routine Activities a Further Test of Routine Activity Theory», Security Journal, XXI, 1-2, pp. 95-116.
  48. E.R. Groff, L. Mazerolle (2008), «Simulated Experiment and Their Potential Role in Criminology and Criminal Justice», Journal of Experimental Criminology, 4, pp. 187-93.
  49. H. Guetzkow (1962), Simulation in Social Science: Readings, Englewood Cliffs (NJ), Prentice Hall.
  50. H. Guetzkow, A. Bowes (1957), «The Development of Organizations in a Laboratory», Management Science, III, pp. 380-402.
  51. R. Hanneman, R. Collins (1987), A Dynamic Simulation of Marx’s Model of Capitalism, in N. Wiley (ed.), The Marx/Weber Debate, Newbury Park, Sage.
  52. A.H. Hawley (1950), Human Ecology: A Theoretical Essay, Chicago, University of Chicago Press.
  53. K. Hayslett-McCall, F. Qui, K.M. Curtin, B. Chastain, J. Schubert, V. Carcer (2008), The Simulation of the Journey to Residential Burglary, in Liu ed Eck (eds.) (2008).
  54. G.C. Homans (1984), Coming to My Sense: The Autobiography of a Sociologist, New Bruns-wick (NJ), Transaction Books.
  55. C. Kongmuang (2006), Modelling Crime: A Spatial Microsimulation Approach, PhD thesis, Leeds, University of Leeds.
  56. E.M. Lemert (1967), Human Deviance, Social Problems and Social Control, Englewood Cliffs (NJ), Prentice-Hall; tr. it., Devianza, problemi sociali e forme di controllo, Milano, Giuffrè, 1981.
  57. J. Liang (2001), Simulating Crimes and Crime Patterns using Cellular Automata and Gis, De-partment of Geography, University of Cincinnati.
  58. L. Liu, J. Eck (eds.) (2008), Artificial Crime Analysis System: Using Computer Simulation and Geographic Information Systems, Hershey, Igi Global.
  59. L. Liu, X. Wang, J.E. Eck, J. Liang (2005), Simulating Crime Events and Crime Patterns in RA/CA Model, in F. Wang (ed.), Geographic Information Systems and Crime Analysis, Singapore, Idea Group.
  60. C.M. Macal, M.J. North (2005), Tutorial on Agent-based Modeling and Simulation, in M.E. Kuhl, N.M. Steiger, F.B. Armstrong, J.A. Joines (eds.), Proceedings of the 2005 Winter Simulation Conference, Piscataway (NJ), Institute Of Electrical And Electronics Engineers.
  61. N. Malleson (2007), Agent-based Modelling and Crime in Leeds, Leeds, University of Leeds.
  62. N. Malleson, A. Evans (2009), Agent-Based Models to Predict Crime at Places, Leeds, University of Leeds.
  63. N. Malleson, A. Heppenstall, L. See, A. Evans (2013), «Using an Agent-based Crime Simulation to predict the Effects of Urban Regeneration on Individual Household Burglary Risk», Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 40, pp. 405-26.
  64. N. Malleson, L. See, A. Evans, A. Heppenstall (2010), «Implementing Comprehensive Offender Behaviour in a Realistic Agent-based Model of Burglary», Simulation, Sage Journal, LXXXVIII, 1, pp. 50-71.
  65. G. Marotta (2015), Criminologia. Storia, teorie, metodi, Trento, Wolters Kluwer.
  66. L.M. McLaughlin, S.D. Johnson, K.J.Bowers, D.J. Birks, K. Pease (2007), «Police Perceptions of the Long-and Short-term Spatial Distribution of Residential Burglary», International Journal of Police Science & Management, IX, 2, pp. 99-111.
  67. D. O’Sullivan (2004), «Complexity Science and Human Geography», Transactions, XXIX, 3, pp. 282-95.
  68. I.D. Onwudiwe, J. Odo, E.C. Onyeozili (2005), Deterence Theory, in M. Bosworth (ed.), Encyclopedia of Prisons & Correctional Facilities, Thousand Oaks-London-New Delhi, Sage.
  69. G. Orcutt, M. Greenberg, J. Korbel, A. Rivlin (1961), Microanalysis of Socioeconomics Systems: A Simulation Study, New York, Harper and Row.
  70. D. Parisi (2001), Simulazioni. La realtà rifatta nei computer, Bologna, il Mulino.
  71. C. Powers, R. Hanneman (1983), «Pareto’s Theory of Social and Economic Cycles: A Formal Model and Simulation», Sociological Theory, 1, pp. 59-89.
  72. V. Punzo (2012), Scelta razionale e sociologia del crimine. Un approccio critico e un modello di simulazione ad agenti, Milano, FrancoAngeli.
  73. A.J.L.Quetelet, (1835), Sur l’homme et le développement des faculties, ousseai de statistique sociale, Paris, Bachelier.
  74. M.B. Robinson, C.E. Robinson (1991), Environmental Characteristics Associated. Urban Crime, Criminals and Victims: The Swedish Experience in an AngloAmerican Comparative Perspective, New York, Springer-Verlag.
  75. T.C. Schelling (1969), «Models of Segregation», American Economic Review, LIX, 2, pp. 488-93.
  76. T.C. Schelling (1971), «Dynamic Models of Segregation», Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 1, pp. 143-86.
  77. C.R. Shaw, H.D. McKay (1969), Juvenile Delinquency and Urban Areas, Chicago, The University of Chicago Press.
  78. A.N. Sindzingre, C. Milelli (2010), The Uncertain Relationship between Corruption and Growth in Developing Countries: Threshold Effects and State Effectiveness, Paris, National Centre for Scientific Research – Economix, Université de Paris-Ouest-Nanterre-La Défense.
  79. B. Sonzogni (2011), «Modellizzazione e simulazione nelle scienze sociali. Questioni teoriche e operative nella costruzione di modelli ad agenti», Sociologia e ricerca sociale, XXXII, 94, pp. 32-79.
  80. B. Sonzogni, F. Cecconi, G. Andrighetto, R. Conte (2015), An Agent Based Model of Camorra: Comparing Punishment and Norm-based Policies in contrasting Illegal Activities, in A. Herzig, E. Lorini, The Cognitive Foundations of Group Attitudes and Social Interaction, New York, Springer.
  81. F. Squazzoni (2008), Simulazione sociale, Roma, Carocci.
  82. P. Terna, R. Boero, M. Morini, M. Sonnessa (a c. di) (2006), Modelli per la complessità. La simulazione ad agenti in economia, Bologna, il Mulino.
  83. C.R. Tittle (1969), «Crime Rates and Legal Sanctions», Social Problems, 6, pp. 409-23.
  84. A. Trobia (2001), La sociologia come scienza rigorosa. Modelli simulativi, intelligenza collettiva, forme del mutamento, Milano, FrancoAngeli.
  85. A. Ummarino (2013), «Un’introduzione ai software per il crime mapping», Rivista di criminologia, vittimologia e sicurezza, VII, 1, pp. 147-59.
  86. F. Wang (ed.) (2005), Geographic Information Systems and Crime Analysis, Singapore, Idea Group.
  87. P. Wiles, P. Costello (2000), «The “Road to nowhere”: The Evidence for travelling Criminals», Home Office Research Study, 207, pp. 1-2.
  88. A. Wilhite (2001), Protection and Social Order, Computational Economics and Finance Meeting, Yale University.
  89. A. Wilhite, W.D. Allen (2008), «Crime, Protection and Incarceration», Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 67, pp. 481-94.
  90. M.J. Wooldrige (2009), An Introduction to Multiagent Systems, Chichester, Wiley.

Barbara Sonzogni, Simulation and crime. A scenario modeling in "SOCIOLOGIA E RICERCA SOCIALE " 117/2018, pp. 20-44, DOI:10.3280/SR2018-117002


FrancoAngeli is a member of Publishers International Linking Association a not for profit orgasnization wich runs the CrossRef service, enabing links to and from online scholarly content