Relationship Management in the context of the local retail banking: a tool for the analysis and forecasting of churn behaviors - The changing competitive context of European banking could be an issue also for small locally oriented banks. This sector is facing a growing trend of customer churn that may seriously affect profitability and threat the competitive position of small retail banks. This paper proposes an analysis of customer attrition within the customer base of an Italian Banca di Credito Cooperativo to support the management of small banks in dealing with customer churn. Our work identifies determinants and magnitude of churn dynamics as long as it allows management a tool to select, target and manage CRM policies. A final simulation empirically document the relation between the Customer Lifetime Value and the expected financial gain in presence of a varying success rate for retention activities.
Keywords: churn, retail banking, customer relationship management Parole chiave: churn, retail banking, customer relationship management