This paper provides a quantification of the short and long-run impacts of the recent credit guarantee scheme agreed by the regional policy maker in Sardinia (Italy) in support of local SME’s. Specifically, taking the expected value of several hypothesized economic scenarios, we first calculate the credit additionality to be ascribed to the implementation of the policy. Then, by exploiting previous findings referring to the specific Italian case (Zecchini and Ventura, 2006), we are also able to calculate the expected reduction in the cost of capital provision enjoyed by the targeted firms. Finally, starting on these two direct effects, the "economic additionality", in terms of higher Investments, Value Added and Labour Units, is also calculated. Simulations concern both annual and cumulated values till the 2020 and refer to a suitable ATECO sectorialization of the regional economy.
Keywords: Credit guarantee schemes; SME’s, credit additionality, cost of capital provision, direct and systemic impacts