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Escape from parents’ basement? Post COVID-19 scenarios for the future of youth employment in Italy
Titolo Rivista: QUADERNI DI ECONOMIA DEL LAVORO 
Autori/Curatori: Giulia Parola 
Anno di pubblicazione:  2020 Fascicolo: 111  Lingua: Inglese 
Numero pagine:  21 P. 51-71 Dimensione file:  257 KB
DOI:  10.3280/QUA2020-111003
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As one of the worst-affected European countries by COVID-19 experiences a slow return to normality, all eyes are on what lies ahead. The labor market implications generated by weeks of drastic lockdown might be far-reaching, and uncertainty about the future of jobs in Italy increases. In this time of significant changes, fleshing out a range of possible future developments could help mitigate part of the uncertainty by guiding decisions at an institutional level. This research employs an intuitive logics approach (IL) to scenario development, which is particularly suited to support decision-making (Kosow and Gaßner, 2008) by deriving the implications of different courses of action. Following the IL method, this study appoints 17 experts to qualify the driving forces of youth employoment in Italy according to their level of uncertainty and impact. The results of this paper are four plausible scenarios derived from the intersection of the two highly uncertain and impactful driving forces most likely to be affected by COVID-19: the state of the economy and a skills mismatch between labor demand and supply. Although all four scenarios foresee a negative impact of the crisis on the labor market, this work shows how the government, its agencies, and supranational institutions might mitigate adverse effects by designing and implementing youth skills interventions. This research contributes to the efforts of the academic community in response to the current emergency by improving our understanding of policy options in the Italian labor market context.

Mentre uno dei paesi europei più colpiti dal COVID-19 vive un lento ritorno alla normalità, tutti gli occhi sono puntati su ciò che ci aspetta. Le implicazioni generate da settimane di drastico lockdown sul mercato del lavoro potrebbero essere di vasta portata e l’incertezza sul futuro dell’occupazione in Italia aumenta. In questo periodo di cambiamenti significativi, l’elaborazione di possibili sviluppi futuri può contribuire a mitigare parte dell’incertezza guidando le decisioni a livello istituzionale. Questa ricerca utilizza un approccio per la costruzione di scenari chiamato intuitive logics (IL). Questo metodo è particolarmente adatto a supportare il processo decisionale (Kosow e Gaßner, 2008) poichè aiuta a derivare le implicazioni di diverse linee d’azione. Seguendo il metodo IL, questo studio seleziona 17 esperti per qualificare le forze trainanti dell’occupazione giovanile in Italia in base al loro livello d’incertezza e d’impatto. I risultati di questa ricerca sono quattro scenari plausibili derivati dall'intersezione delle due forze trainanti altamente incerte e incisive che più probabilmente saranno influenzate dal COVID-19: lo stato dell’economia e lo squilibrio delle competenze tra domanda e offerta di lavoro. Sebbene tutti e quattro gli scenari prevedano un impatto avverso della crisi sul mercato del lavoro, quest’articolo mostra come il governo, le sue agenzie e le istituzioni sovranazionali possano mitigare gli effetti negativi pianificando e attuando interventi mirati alle competenze dei giovani. Questa ricerca contribuisce agli sforzi della comunità accademica in risposta all’attuale emergenza migliorando la nostra comprensione delle opzioni politiche nel contesto del mercato del lavoro italiano.
Keywords: Coronavirus, COVID-19, Italia, mercato del lavoro, NEETs, (dis)occupazione giovanile.

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Giulia Parola, in "QUADERNI DI ECONOMIA DEL LAVORO" 111/2020, pp. 51-71, DOI:10.3280/QUA2020-111003

   

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