Contemporary and non-contemporary spatial dependence in unemployment rates: an attempt to empirical analysis of Italian provincial date

Journal title RIVISTA DI ECONOMIA E STATISTICA DEL TERRITORIO
Author/s Massimiliano Agovino, Antonio Garofalo
Publishing Year 2014 Issue 2013/3 Language Italian
Pages 38 P. 45-82 File size 1309 KB
DOI 10.3280/REST2013-003002
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The aim of this paper is to analyze the spatio-temporal trend of unemployment rates in Italian provinces by using spatial econometrics tools. Methods and Results To this purpose, we investigate the existence of contemporary and noncontemporary spatial dependence in unemployment rates by employing ESDA (Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis) and ESTDA (Exploratory Space-Time Data Analysis) techniques. Our results show that: unemployment is a phenomenon characterized by space-time persistence; a shock in the unemployment rate, which occurs in the past and in a given province, produces its effects in the present in the neighbouring provinces. Conclusions: As a consequence, economic policy measures addressed to the province where the shock is generated are not sufficient to tackle the problem since unemployment is neither a localized or a temporary phenomenon.

Keywords: Spatial model, spatial econometrics, spatial diffusion, ESDA, unemployment

Jel codes: C21, C51, C53, J08, J64

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Massimiliano Agovino, Antonio Garofalo, Dipendenza spaziale contemporanea e non contemporanea nei tassi di disoccupazione: un tentativo di analisi empirica dei dati provinciali italiani in "RIVISTA DI ECONOMIA E STATISTICA DEL TERRITORIO" 3/2013, pp 45-82, DOI: 10.3280/REST2013-003002