Previsioni demografiche e sostenibilità della spesa pensionistica in Italia

Journal title STUDI ECONOMICI
Author/s Aldo Barba
Publishing Year 2008 Issue 2008/94
Language Italian Pages 29 P. 65-93 File size 316 KB
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Demographic Forecasts and Sustainability of the Italian Pension Expenditure - This article discusses the effects that changes in the age structure of the Italian population could exert on the sustainability of public pension provision. After discussing the poor performance of demographic forecasts, we discuss increases in fertility and immigration flows as alternative ways to contrast the impending ageing of the population. We then examine the constraints that a shrinking labour force may exert on the level of employment, taking into account the presence of massive disguised unemployment. The paper maintains that in the medium and long term the demographic scenario has to be considered as not exogenous with respect to the economic stance. In this connection, expected aggregate demand and income distribution changes are considered of crucial importance.

Aldo Barba, Previsioni demografiche e sostenibilità della spesa pensionistica in Italia in "STUDI ECONOMICI " 94/2008, pp 65-93, DOI: