Using Stated Preferences to Forecast the Market Diffusion of Alternative Fuel Vehicles
Journal title SCIENZE REGIONALI
Author/s Jérome Massiani
Publishing Year 2012 Issue 2012/3
Language English Pages 29 P. 93-121 File size 995 KB
DOI 10.3280/SCRE2012-003006
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Together with Bass diffusion and, to a lesser extent, Total Cost of Ownership, Stated Preferences are the most popular method used to forecast the future diffusion of electric and alternative fuel vehicles. In this paper, we analyse the merits and limitations of SP compared with other methods. We also review the empirical results provided by SP surveys, and assess their validity for modelling market diffusion. We also propose a metaanalysis- based Synthetic Utility Function that consolidates results across various studies and can be used for simulation purposes in a Discrete Choice Model setting. This approach makes simulation results less dependent on the idiosyncrasies of individual surveys, and is therefore helpful for formulating robust policy recommendations.
Keywords: Stated preferences, alternative fuel vehicle, market diffusion
Jel codes: C53, O33
Jérome Massiani, Using Stated Preferences to Forecast the Market Diffusion of Alternative Fuel Vehicles in "SCIENZE REGIONALI " 3/2012, pp 93-121, DOI: 10.3280/SCRE2012-003006