The economic impact of Climate Change under uncertain water supply in an irrigated Mediterranean area

Author/s Gabriele Dono, Graziano Mazzapicchio
Publishing Year 2010 Issue 2010/1 Language Italian
Pages 22 P. 129-150 File size 737 KB
DOI 10.3280/EFE2010-001010
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This study assesses some of productive and economic effects of climate change on an irrigated area of southern Italy. In particular, it examines the variation due to change in rainfall on the availability of water for irrigation in a dam. Once the relationship between rains and volume of water in the dam is estimated, the distribution of various states of water accumulation in the dam is defined for a past, a current and a future scenario. These distributions are used for representing the expectations of farmers on the availability of water, when variability of rainfall phenomena increases. In particular, these distributions are included in a Discrete Stochastic Programming model in order to replicating the choices of farmers, given the stochastic expected value for accumulation of irrigation water in the dam. Comparing the results obtained by simulating the scenarios of present and future with past, a drop emerges in income and employment, especially in certain farm typologies. In addition, there are changes in the use of land, with a decrease in the use of productive factors and an increase in the amount of water extracted from the wells.

Keywords: Climate Change, water availability, Discrete Stochastic Programming, economic impact

Jel codes: Q51

Gabriele Dono, Graziano Mazzapicchio, L’impatto economico dei cambiamenti climatici sulla disponibilità di acqua irrigua in un’area del Mediterraneo in "ECONOMIA DELLE FONTI DI ENERGIA E DELL’AMBIENTE" 1/2010, pp 129-150, DOI: 10.3280/EFE2010-001010