Dall’analisi dell’incertezza alla valutazione del rischio di investimento

Correct assessment of critical variables influencing public investment final outcome is often a crucial procedure, especially in cases where the dynamics of such variables cannot be controlled by public agents, because they mainly depend on choices and behaviors of other operators. This is a typical situation occurring in development project assessment, characterized by a high uncertainty degree and by a scarce availability of information in relation to the behaviour of aleatory variables influencing investment final outcome. In such cases, risk analysis by directly using Montecarlo method could be misleading: on the contrary, we think that such an evaluation should be preceded by uncertainty analysis, allowing to generate new useful information for subsequent risk assessment. In this context, the paper presents one possible evaluative pattern, especially suited for development projects assessment, allowing first to understand the leeways of uncertainty between which investment decision must be taken and, then, to estimate investment risk and to generate useful information to help Decision Maker defining the most suitable economic tools to mitigate it. The proposed evaluative pattern is composed by four steps, based on different techniques and sequentially articulated, so that each step generates new useful information for developing the following one. Such a scheme allows both to deepen the information produced by the evaluative process, and to guarantee more decisional transparency.

Keywords: Risk, uncertainty, probability, evaluation

Fabiana Monacciani, Dall’analisi dell’incertezza alla valutazione del rischio di investimento in "RIV Rassegna Italiana di Valutazione" 46/2010, pp 69-84, DOI: 10.3280/RIV2010-046006