Underground Economy: Irregular Employment In Italy from 1980 to 2009

Journal title ECONOMIA PUBBLICA
Author/s Simona Monteleone
Publishing Year 2014 Issue 2014/2
Language Italian Pages 33 P. 91-123 File size 1336 KB
DOI 10.3280/EP2014-002004
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The paper analyzes the units of full-time employment (ULA) as estimated by Istat National Accounts. The cyclical analysis can highlight the role that irregular employment (dependent and independent) play on the dynamics of the Italian economy, emphasizing the relationship of substitution between irregular and regular sector. The irregular (both dependent and independent) are not true leading of the cycle, but when the GDP grows, they move earlier, while the regular are slower to adapt. Results from VAR models suggest that there are no connections, contemporaneous correlation or Granger causality, between the dark and the regular side of the Italian market. These findings provide important implications in terms of policy on the complex phenomenon of undeclared work.

Keywords: Keywords: irregular employment, regular employment, regular employees, Irregular employees, business cycle, shadow economy.

Jel codes: J01, J21, J82, J64, C01, P37

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Simona Monteleone, Economia sommersa: ULA irregolari in Italia dal 1980 al 2009 in "ECONOMIA PUBBLICA " 2/2014, pp 91-123, DOI: 10.3280/EP2014-002004