Problems of prediction in psychiatry

Author/s Andrea Angelozzi
Publishing Year 2021 Issue 2021/4 Language Italian
Pages 24 P. 623-646 File size 394 KB
DOI 10.3280/PU2021-004005
DOI is like a bar code for intellectual property: to have more infomation click here

Below, you can see the article first page .

If you want to buy this article in PDF format, you can do it, following the instructions to buy download credits

Anteprima articolo

FrancoAngeli is member of Publishers International Linking Association, Inc (PILA), a not-for-profit association which run the CrossRef service enabling links to and from online scholarly content.

Some problems related to prediction in psychiatry are examined. The available data show, in a similar way to the social sciences, wide limitations in predictive capacity, especially with regard to suicide, violence and other behaviors. The difficulties arising from the difficulty of deriving the future from aspects of the person’s history, the lack of coherence between personality dimensions and behavior, and the privilege given to psychopathological instruments focused on the individual case, compared to actuarial instruments with testistic and statistical evaluations, are examined. The numerous cognitive biases that distort predictions are also highlighted, in particular the fundamental attribution error, which prioritizes personality variables over situational variables. But other biases have an important distortive action, from representativeness to availability, from statistical errors to framing or priming. It emerges a psychiatry still very tied in practices to common sense and folk psychology, with the richness but also the many errors that characterize it. Finally, a small ability for prediction, as recognized by popular psychology and psychiatry, exists, but linked more to situational constraints than to models of personality and psychopathology, and, in any case, poorly reliable for clinical prediction in psychiatry.

Keywords: Prediction in psychiatry; Suicide; Fundamental attribution error; Personality and behavior; Cognitive biases

  1. Bateson J. (2012). The Final Leap. Suicide on the Golden Gate Bridge. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.
  2. Beauvois J.L. (1984). La psychologie quotidienne. Paris: PUF.
  3. Ajzen I. (1977). Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base-rate information on prediction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35, 5: 303-314. DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.35.5.303
  4. Angelozzi A. (2021). L’ipotesi dello spostamento nel suicidio: persona e situazione in psicopatologia. Psicoterapia e Scienze Umane, 55, 2: 247-264. DOI: 10.3280/PU2021-002004
  5. Arkes H.R., Wortmann R.L., Saville P.D. & Harkness A.R. (1981). Hindsight bias among physicians weighing the likelihood of diagnoses. Journal of Applied Psychology, 66, 2: 252-254. DOI: 10.1037/0021-9010.66.2.252
  6. Baron J. & Hershey J.C. (1988). Outcome bias in decision evaluation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 54, 4: 569-579. DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.54.4.569
  7. Bem D.J. & Allen A. (1974). On predicting some of the people some of the time: The search for cross-situational consistencies in behavior. Psychological Review, 81, 6: 506-520.
  8. Berman J.S. & Norton N.C. (1985). Does professional training make a therapist more effective? Psychological Bulletin, 98, 2: 401-407. DOI: 10.1037/0033-2909.98.2.401
  9. Bonta J., Law M. & Hanson K. (1998). The prediction of criminal and violent recidivism among mentally disordered offenders: A meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 123, 2: 123-142. DOI: 10.1037/0033-2909.123.2.123
  10. Borgida E. & Nisbett R.E. (1977). The differential impact of abstract vs. concrete information on decisions. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 7, 3: 258-271.
  11. Bruner J. & Postman L. (1949). On the perception of incongruity: A paradigm. Journal of Personality, 18, 2: 206-223.
  12. Buckley P., Citrome L., Nichita C. & Vitacco M. (2011). Psychopharmacology of aggression in schizophrenia. Schizophrenia Bulletin, 37, 5: 930-936.
  13. Buchanan A., Sint K., Swanson J. & Rosenheck R. (2019). Correlates of future violence in people being treated for schizophrenia. American Journal of Psychiatry, 176, 9: 694-701.
  14. Cantor N. & Mischel W. (1979). Prototypes in Person Perception. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 12: 3-52. DOI: 10.1016/S0065-2601(08)60258-0
  15. Carroll J., Wiener R., Coates D., Galegher J. & Alibrio J. (1982). Evaluation, diagnosis, and prediction in parole decision making. Law & Society Review, 17, 1: 199-228. DOI: 10.2307/3053536
  16. Cassells C., Paterson B., Dowding D. & Morrison R. (2005). Long- and short-term risk factors in the prediction of inpatient suicide: A review of the literature. Crisis, 26, 2: 53-63. DOI: 10.1027/0227-5910.26.2.53
  17. Castiello D’Antonio A. (2008). Sulla selezione degli psicoanalisti. Psicoterapia e Scienze Umane, 42, 3: 357-394.
  18. Catty J., Lissouba P., White S., Becker T., Drake R., Fioritti A., Knapp M., Lauber C., Rössler W., Tomov T., van Busschbach J., Wiersma D. & Burns T. (2008). Predictors of employment for people with severe mental illness: Results of an international six-centre randomised controlled trial. British Journal of Psychiatry, 192, 3: 224-231.
  19. Chan M.K., Bhatti H., Meader N., Stockton S., Evans J., O’Connor R.C., Kapur N., & Kendall T. (2016). Predicting suicide following self-harm: Systematic review of risk factors and risk scales. British Journal of Psychiatry, 209, 4: 277-283.
  20. Chapman L.J. & Chapman J.P. (1967). Genesis of popular but erroneous psychodiagnostic observations. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 72, 3: 193-204.
  21. Churchland P. (1981). Eliminative materialism and propositional attitudes. Journal of Philosophy, 78, 2: 67-90. DOI: 10.2307/2025900
  22. Cialdini R. (1993). Influence. The Psychology of Persuasion. New York: Quill William Morrow and Co. (trad. it.: Le armi della persuasione. Come e perché si finisce col dire di sì. Firenze: Giunti, 1995).
  23. Cocozza J.J. & Steadman H.J. (1978). Prediction in psychiatry: An example of misplaced confidence in experts. Social Problems, 25, 3: 265-276.
  24. Dawes R.M. (1994). House of Cards: Psychology and Psychotherapy Built on Myth. New York: Free Press.
  25. Dawes R.M. (1999). A message from psychologists to economists: mere predictability doesn’t matter like it should (without a good story appended to it). Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 39, 1: 29-40. DOI: 10.1016/S0167-2681(99)00024-4
  26. Dawes R.M., Faust D. & Meehl P.E. (1989). Clinical versus actuarial judgment. Science, 243, 4899: 1668-74.
  27. Dawson N.V., Arkes H.R., Siciliano C., Blinkhorn R., Lakshmanan M. & Petrelli M. (1988). Hindsight bias: An impediment to accurate probability estimation in clinicopathologic conferences. Medical Decision Making, 8, 4: 259-264. DOI: 10.1177/0272989X880080040
  28. Dennett D. (2003). Freedom Evolves. New York: Viking ( L’evoluzione della libertà. Milano: Raffaello Cortina, 2004).
  29. Dobelli R. (2011). Die Kunst des klaren Denkens. München: Carl Hanser Verlag ( L’arte di pensare chiaro (e di lasciare agli altri le idee confuse). Milano: Garzanti, 2013).
  30. Dunning D., Griffin D.W., Milojkovic J.D. & Ross L. (1990). The overconfidence effect in social prediction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 58, 4: 568-581. DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.58.4.568
  31. Ennis B.J. & Litwack T.R. (1974). Psychiatry and the presumption of expertise: flipping coins in the Courtroom. California Law Review, 62, 3: 693-752. DOI: 10.15779/Z38XX8W
  32. Epstein S. (1983). Aggregation and beyond: Some basic issues on the prediction of behavior. Journal of Personality, 51, 3: 360-392.
  33. Erickson M.H. & Rossi E.L. (1989). The February Man. Evolving Consciousness and Identity in Hypnotherapy. New York: Brunner/Mazel (trad. it.: L’uomo di febbraio. Lo sviluppo della coscienza e dell’identità nell’ipnoterapia. Roma: Astrolabio, 1992).
  34. Faust D. & Ziskin J. (1988). The expert witness in psychology and psychiatry. Science, 241, 4861: 31-35.
  35. Fazel S., Wolf A., Larsson H., Mallett S. & Fanshawe T.R. (2019). The prediction of suicide in severe mental illness: Development and validation of a clinical prediction rule (OxMIS). Translational Psychiatry, 9, 1: 98.
  36. Festinger L. (1957). A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press (trad. it.: Teoria della dissonanza cognitiva. Milano: FrancoAngeli, 1973).
  37. Fischhoff B. (1975). Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1, 3: 288-299. DOI: 10.1037/0096-1523.1.3.288
  38. Garb H.N. (2005). Clinical judgment and decision making. Annual Review of Clinical Psychology, 1: 67-89.
  39. Garb H.N. & Boyle P.A. (2014). Understanding why some clinicians use pseudoscientific methods. Findings from research on clinical judgment. In Lilienfeld S O., Lynn S.J. & Lohr J.M., editors, Science and Pseudoscience in Clinical Psychology. New York: Guilford, pp. 17-38.
  40. Geddes J. (1999). Suicide and homicide by people with mental illness. We still don’t know how to prevent most of these deaths. British Medical Journal, 318, 7193: 1225-1226.
  41. Gilbert D.T. & Malone P.S. (1995). The correspondence bias. Psychological Bulletin, 117, 1: 21-38. DOI: 10.1037/0033-2909.117.1.2
  42. Goldney R. (1990). The prediction of suicide. In: McKillop S., editor, Proceedings of Preventing Youth Suicide Conference. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology.
  43. Goldstein R.B., Black D.W., Nasrallah A. & Winokur G. (1991). The prediction of suicide. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive value of a multivariate model applied to suicide among 1906 patients with affective disorders. Archives of General Psychiatry, 48, 5: 418-22.
  44. Grove M.W. (2005) Clinical versus statistical prediction: The contribution of Paul E. Meehl. Journal of Clinical Psychology, 61, 10: 1233-1243.
  45. Grove M.W., Zald Dh, Lebow B.S., Snitz B.E. & Nelson C. (2000) Clinical versus mechanical prediction: A meta-analysis. Psychological Assessment, 12, 1: 19-30. DOI: 10.1037/1040-3590.12.1.19
  46. Guéguen N. (2002). Psychologie de la manipulation et de la soumission. Paris: Dunod.
  47. Hacking I. (1995). Rewriting the Soul: Multiple Personality and the Sciences of Memory. Princenton, NJ: Princeton University Press ( La riscoperta dell’anima. Personalità multipla e scienze della memoria. Milano: Feltrinelli, 1996).
  48. Haim R., Rabinowitz J., Lereya J. & Fennig S. (2002). Predictions made by psychiatrists and psychiatric nurses of violence by patients. Psychiatric Services, 53, 5: 622-624.
  49. Harris G.T. & Rice M.E. (1997). Risk appraisal and management of violent behavior. Psychiatric Services, 48, 9: 1168-1176.
  50. Hart S.D., Michie C. & Cooke D.J. (2007). Precision of actuarial risk assessment instruments: Evaluating the “margins of error” of group vs. individual predictions of violence. British Journal of Psychiatry, 49: s60-s65.
  51. Hawkins S. & Hastie R. (1990). Hindsight: Biased judgments of past events after the outcomes are known. Psychological Bulletin, 107, 3: 311-327. DOI: 10.1037/0033-2909.107.3.311
  52. Heider F. (1958). The Psychology of Interpersonal Relations. New York: Wiley (trad. it.: Psicologia delle relazioni interpersonali. Bologna: Il Mulino, 1972).
  53. Heider F. & Simmel M. (1944). An experimental study of apparent behavior. American Journal of Psychology, 57, 2: 243-59. DOI: 10.2307/1416950
  54. Heine S.J., Proulx T. & Vohs K.D. (2006). The meaning maintenance model: On the coherence of social motivations. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 10, 2: 88-110.
  55. Hendin H., Al Jurdi R.K., Houck P.R., Hughes S. & Turner J.B. (2010). Role of intense affects in predicting short-term risk for suicidal behavior. Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease, 198, 3: 220-225.
  56. Hermann R.C., Ettner S.L., Dorwart R.A., Langman-Dorwart N. & Kleinman S. (1999). Diagnoses of patients treated with ECT: A comparison of evidence-based standards with reported use. Psychiatric Services, 50, 8: 1059-1065.
  57. Holt R.R. (1958). Clinical and statistical prediction: A reformulation and some new data. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 56, 1: 1-12.
  58. Hunter J.E. & Hunter R.F. (1984). Validity and utility of alternative predictors of job performance. Psychological Bulletin, 96, 1: 72-98. DOI: 10.1037/0033-2909.96.1.72
  59. Jones E.E. & Harris V.A. (1967). The attribution of attitudes. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 3, 1: 1-24. DOI: 10.1016/0022-1031(67)90034-0
  60. Joule R.V. & Beauvois J.L. (2015). La soumission librement consentie. Comment amener les gens à faire librement ce qu’ils doivent faire? Paris: PUF.
  61. Kahneman D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux (trad. it.: Pensieri lenti e veloci. Milano: Mondadori, 2012).
  62. Kahneman D. (2019). Ricordi di un’estate del 1960 con David Rapaport e possibili sviluppi (con una Nota redazionale di Pier Francesco Galli). Psicoterapia e Scienze Umane, 53, 3: 463-480. DOI: 10.3280/PU2019-003005
  63. Kahneman D. & Tversky A. (1973). On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review, 80, 4: 237-251.
  64. Kahneman D. & Klein G. (2009). Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree. American Psychologist, 64, 6: 515-526.
  65. Kiesler C.A. (1971) The Psychology of Commitment: Experiments Linking Behavior to Belief. New York: Academic Press.
  66. Kitamura T. & Kitamura F. (2000). Reliability of clinical judgment of patients’ competency to give informed consent: A case vignette study. Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences, 54, 2: 245-247.
  67. Klein G. (2013). Seeing What Others Don’t. New York: Public Affairs.
  68. Kunda Z. & Nisbett R.E. (1986). The psychometrics of everyday life. Cognitive Psychology, 18, 2: 195-224. DOI: 10.1016/0010-0285(86)90012-5
  69. Landau M. (1984). Human evolution as narrative. American Scientist, 72, 3: 262-268.
  70. Large M., Galletly C., Myles N., Ryan C.J. & Myles H. (2017). Known unknowns and unknown unknowns in suicide risk assessment: Evidence from meta-analyses of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. BJPsych Bulletin, 41, 3: 160-163.
  71. Lavazza A. & Marraffa M. (2016). La guerra dei mondi. Scienza e senso comune. Torino: Codice.
  72. Lewin K. (1935). A Dynamic Theory of Personality: Selected Papers. New York: McGraw-Hill (trad. it.: Teoria dinamica della personalità. Firenze: Giunti, 1965).
  73. Lidz C.W., Mulvey E.P. & Gardner W. (1993). The accuracy of predictions of violence to others. Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), 269, 8: 1007-1011.
  74. Lorenz N.E. (1972). Predictability: Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas? (Relazione al 139th Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Sciences: Resonance. Journal of Science Education, 2015, 20, 3: 261-263.
  75. Lord C.G., Ross L. & Lepper M.R. (1979). Biased assimilation and attitude polarization: The effects of prior theories on subsequently considered evidence. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37, 11: 2098-2109. DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.37.11.2098
  76. Lynn S.J. & McConkey K.M., editors (1998). Truth in Memory. New York: Guilford.
  77. Malizia N. (2013). Criminologia ed elementi di criminalistica. Roma: Firera & Liuzzo.
  78. Malle B.F. (2004). How the Mind Explains Behavior. Folk Explanations, Meaning, and Social Interaction. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  79. McCann J.T., Shindler K.L. & Hammond T.R. (2014). The science and pseudoscience of expert testimony. In: Lilienfeld S.O., Lynn S.J. & Lohr J.M., editors, Science and Pseudoscience in Clinical Psychology. New York: Guilford, 2014, pp. 77-108.
  80. Meehl P.E. (1954). Clinical versus Statistical Prediction: A Theoretical Analysis and a Review of the Evidence. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press. Testo integrale:
  81. Meehl P.E. (1973). Why I do not attend case conferences. In: Psychodiagnosis: Selected Papers. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press, 1973, pp. 225-302. Edizione in PDF: (trad. it. in forma abbreviata: Perché non partecipo ai seminari clinici. Psicoterapia e Scienze Umane, 2007, XLI, 3: 295-314).
  82. Meehl P.E. (1986). Causes and effects of my disturbing little book. Journal of Personality Assessment, 50, 3: 370-375.
  83. Michotte A. (1952). La perception de la causalité. Louvain: Publications Universitaires de Louvain (trad. it: La percezione della causalità. Firenze: Giunti-Barbera, 1972).
  84. Milgram S. (1974). Obedience to Authority: An Experimental View. New York: Harper & Row (trad. it.: Obbedienza all’autorità. Milano: Bompiani, 1975; Torino: Einaudi, 2003).
  85. Miller P.R., Dasher R., Collins R., Griffiths P. & Brown F. (2001). Inpatient diagnostic assessments: 1. Accuracy of structured vs. unstructured interviews. Psychiatry Research, 105, 3: 255-264.
  86. Mischel W. (2009). From personality and assessment (1968) to personality science, 2009. Journal of Research in Personality, 43, 2: 282-290.
  87. Monahan J. (1984). The prediction of violent behavior: Toward a second generation of theory and policy, American Journal of Psychiatry, 141, 1: 10-15.
  88. Monahan J. (1992). Mental disorder and violent behavior: Perceptions and evidence. American Psychologist, 47, 4: 511-521. DOI: 10.1037/0003-066X.47.4.511
  89. Monahan J. (2006). A jurisprudence of risk assessment: Forecasting harm among prisoners, predators, and patients. Virginia Law Review, 92, 3: 391-435.
  90. Monahan J. (2008). Structured risk assessment of violence. In: Simon R.I. & Tardiff K., editors, Textbook of Violence Assessment and Management. Washington, D.C.: American Psychiatric Publishing, 2008, pp. 17-33.
  91. Monahan J. & Steadman H.J. (1996). Violent storms and violent people: How meteorology can inform risk communication in mental health law. American Psychologist, 51, 9: 931-938. DOI: 10.1037/0003-066X.51.9.93
  92. Monson T.C. & Snyder M. (1977). Actors, observers, and the attribution process. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 13, 1: 89-111. DOI: 10.1016/0022-1031(77)90016-6
  93. Müller M.J. & Davids E. (1999). Relationship of psychiatric experience and interrater reliability in assessment of negative symptoms. Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease, 187, 5: 316-318. DOI: 10.1097/00005053-199905000-00011.
  94. Murphy G.E. (1972). Clinical identification of suicidal risk. Archives General Psychiatry, 27, 3: 356-359.
  95. Nisbett R. & Borgida E. (1975). Attribution and the psychology of prediction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32, 5: 932-943. DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.32.5.932
  96. Nisbett R.E., Caputo C., Legant P. & Marecek J. (1973). Behavior as seen by the actor and as seen by the observer. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 27, 2: 154-164.
  97. Nisbett R. & Wilson T. (1977). Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes. Psychology Review, 84, 3: 231-259.
  98. Nisbett R. & Ross L. (1980). Human Inference. Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgement. New Jersey: Prentice Hall (trad. it: L’inferenza umana. Strategie e lacune del giudizio sociale. Bologna: Il Mulino, 1989).
  99. Palmstierna T. (1999). Only about 1 in 30 predictions of assault by discharged psychiatric patients will be correct. British Medical Journal, 319, 7219: 1270.
  100. Patihis L. & Younes Burton H.J. (2015). False memories in therapy and hypnosis before 1980. Psychology of Consciousness: Theory, Research, and Practice, 2, 2: 153-169.
  101. Pietromonaco P.R. & Nisbett R.E. (1982). Swimming upstream against the fundamental attribution error: Subjects’ weak generalizations from the Darley and Batson study. Social Behavior and Personality, 10, 1: 1-4.
  102. Pokorny A.D. (1983). Prediction of suicide in psychiatric patients. Archives of General Psychiatry, 40, 3: 249-257.
  103. Popper K.R. (1957). Conjectures and Refutations. New York: Basic Books, 1962 (trad. it.: Congetture e confutazioni. Bologna: Il Mulino, 1972).
  104. Ramesh T., Igoumenou A., Vazquez Montes M. & Fazel S. (2018). Use of risk assessment instruments to predict violence in forensic psychiatric hospitals: A systematic review and meta-analysis. European Psychiatry, 52, 47-53.
  105. Ratcliffe M. (2007). Rethinking Commonsense Psychology. A Critique of Folk Psychology, Theory of Mind and Simulation. New York: Palgrave MacMillan.
  106. Ribeiro J., Franklin J., Fox K., Bentley K., Kleiman E., Chang B. & Nock M. (2016). Self-injurious thoughts and behaviors as risk factors for future suicide ideation, attempts, and death: A meta-analysis of longitudinal studies. Psychological Medicine, 46, 2: 225-236. DOI: 10.1017/S0033291715001804
  107. Ross L. (1977). The intuitive psychologist and his shortcomings: Distortions in the attribution process. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 10: 173-220. DOI: 10.1016/S0065-2601(08)60357-3
  108. Ross L.D., Amabile T.M. & Steinmetz J.L. (1977). Social roles, social control, and biases in social-perception processes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35, 7: 485-494. DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.35.7.485
  109. Ross L. & Nisbett R.E. (1991). The Person and the Situation. Perspectives of Social Psychology. New York: McGraw-Hill (trad. it.: La persona e la situazione. Bologna: Il Mulino, 1998).
  110. Rosenzweig P. (2014). The Halo Effect… and the Eight Other Business Delusions That Deceive Managers. New York: Free Press.
  111. Ross L. (2018). From the fundamental attribution error to the truly fundamental attribution error and beyond: My research journey. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 13, 6: 750-769. DOI: 10.1177/1745691618769855
  112. Rubin B. (1972). Prediction of dangerousness in mentally ill criminals. Archives of General Psychiatry, 27, 3: 397-407.
  113. Salazar de Pablo G., Studerus E., Vaquerizo-Serrano J., Irving J., Catalan A., Oliver D., Baldwin H., Danese A., Fazel S., Steyerberg E.W., Stahl D. & Fusar-Poli P. (2021). Implementing precision psychiatry: A systematic review of individualized prediction models for clinical practice. Schizophrenia Bulletin, 47, 2: 284-297.
  114. Sawyer J. (1966). Measurement and prediction, clinical and statistical. Psychological Bulletin, 66, 3: 178-200.
  115. Shanteau J. (1992). Competence in experts: The role of task characteristics. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 53, 2: 252-266.
  116. Shweder R.A. & D’Andrade R.G. (1979). Accurate reflection or systematic distortion? A reply to Block, Weiss, and Thorne. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37, 6: 1075-1084. DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.37.6.1075
  117. Sines O.J. (1970) Actuarial versus clinical prediction in psychopathology. British Journal of Psychiatry, 116, 531: 129-144.
  118. Slovic P., Peters E., Finucane M. & MacGregor D. (2005). Affect, risk, and decision making. Health Psychology, 24, 4: S35-S40. DOI: 10.1037/0278-6133.24.4.S35
  119. Slovic P., Finucane M.L., Peters E. & MacGregor D.G. (2007). The affect heuristic. European Journal of Operational Research, 177, 3: 1333-1352.
  120. Smith M. L. & Glass G. V. (1977). Meta-analysis of psychotherapy outcome studies. American Psychologist, 32, 9: 752-760. DOI: 10.1037/0003-066X.32.9.752
  121. Steadman H.J. (1973). Follow up on Baxstrom patients returned to hospitals for the criminally insane. American Journal of Psychiatry, 130, 3: 317-319.
  122. Swanson J.W. (2008) Preventing the unpredicted: Managing violence risk in mental health care. Psychiatric Services, 59, 2: 191-193.
  123. Taleb N.N. (2007). The Black Swan. The Impact of the Highly Improbable. New York: Random House ( Il cigno nero. Come l’improbabile governa la nostra vita. Milano: Il Saggiatore, 2008).
  124. Tavris C. (2014) The Widening Scientist-Practitioner Gap. A View from the Bridge. In: Lilienfeld S.O., Lynn S.J. & Lohr J.M., editors, Science and Pseudoscience in Clinical Psychology. New York: Guilford, 2014, pp. IX-XVIII.
  125. Tetlock P.E. & Gardner D. (2015). Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction: New York: Crown.
  126. Thorndike E.L. (1920). A constant error in psychological ratings. Journal of Applied Psychology, 4, 1: 25-29.
  127. Tolman A.O. & Mullendore K.B. (2003). Risk evaluations for the courts: Is service quality a function of specialization? Professional Psychology: Research and Practice, 34, 3: 225-232. DOI: 10.1037/0735-7028.34.3.225
  128. Trivers R. (2012). The Folly of Fools. New York: Basic Books.
  129. Tversky A. & Kahneman D. (1971). Belief in the law of small numbers. Psychological Bulletin, 76, 2: 105-110.
  130. Tversky A. & Kahneman D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 4157: 1124-1131.
  131. Tversky A. & Kahneman D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science, 211, 4481: 453-458.
  132. Von Hayek F.A. (1952). The Counter-Revolution of Science: Studies on the Abuse of Reason. New York: Free Press (trad. it.: L’abuso della ragione. Soveria Mannelli [CZ]: Rubettino, 2008)
  133. Wampold B.E. & Imel Z.E. (2015). The Great Psychotherapy Debate: The Evidence for What Makes Psychotherapy Work. New York: Routledge (trad. it.: Il grande dibattito in psicoterapia. L’evidenza della ricerca scientifica avanzata applicata alla clinica. Roma: Sovera, 2017).
  134. Wenk E.A., Robison J.O. & Smith G.W. (1972). Can violence be predicted? Crime & Delinquency, 18, 4: 393-402. DOI: 10.1177/001112877201800408
  135. Wicker A.W. (1969). Attitudes versus actions: The relationship of verbal and overt behavioral responses to attitude objects. Journal of Social Issues, 25, 4: 41-78.
  136. Wilson T.D. (2003). Knowing when to ask: Introspection and the adaptive unconscious. Journal of Consciousness Studies, 10, 9/10: 131-140.
  137. Wilson T.D., Hull J.G. & Johnson J. (1981). Awareness and self-perception: Verbal reports on internal states. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 40, 1: 53-71. DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.40.1.53

  • Folk psychiatry. La psichiatria fra immagine scientifica e psichiatria popolare Andrea Angelozzi, in PSICOTERAPIA E SCIENZE UMANE 3/2022 pp.431
    DOI: 10.3280/PU2022-003004

Andrea Angelozzi, Problemi della previsione in psichiatria in "PSICOTERAPIA E SCIENZE UMANE" 4/2021, pp 623-646, DOI: 10.3280/PU2021-004005