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Luciano Bozzo, Carlo Simon-Belli

The Kosovo Quagmire

Conflict Scenarios and Methods for Resolution

Pages: 192

ISBN: 9788846420473

Edition: 1^a edizione 2000

Publisher code: 1136.53

Availability: Discreta

The collapse of Albania and the crisis which followed have drawn the attention of the public, both in Italy and elsewhere, to an area which the end of the Cold War has thrown into a state of instability. However the collapse of this country, dramatic as it may be, is only one aspect of the "Illyrian Issue". While 3,000,000 Albanians live within the frontiers of the State which bears theri name, just as many live in ethnically homogeneous territories around the country itself (Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro etc.). The historical problems caused by the fact that all Albanians do not live within the national State is therefore one of the key factors which will deside the process of future stability in the Balkans.

This study takes a close look at the central point of the "Illyrian Issue": the conflict between Serbs and Albanians in Kosovo and the impact the collapse of the financial "pyramid" in Albania can have on this. In order to have both a descriptive and interpretative picture of the situation, the analysis has been based on the most up to date methodology ("Analytic Hierarchy Process" (AHP) and "Catastrophe Theory") introduced and developed in the field of the theory of international relations since the end of the 1970s.

The aim of the research is to present the previsional scenarios and to single out methods and intervention strategies that can put an end to the conflict. This is taken from the point of view of protecting Italian national interests, that is as indications for those who are responsible for planning the actions and lines of intervention for foreign policy in the geopolitical theatre which is the subject of the study.

The CeMiSS ( Military Centre for Strategic Studies ) is the organisation which under the auspices of the Ministry of Defence organises research on subjects of strategic nature. Founded in 1987 by a decree of the Ministry of Defence CeMiSS carries out its work with the help of experts in the field both military and civilian, Italian and from other countries.

Luciano Bozzo is adjunct professor of International Relations at the University of Bologna. He also teaches Strategic Studies at the University of Florence and Global Strategy at the Italian Air Force War College. He is member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, London. He has just edited a book on Air Power and is preparing a monograph on strategic theory (e-mail: bozzo@unifi.it).

Carlo Simon-Belli specialises in previsional studies, conflict simulation and resolution. He is a member of the Institute for Previsional Studies and International Research (ISPRI) and collaborates with various University institutes. He has published several studies on the prevision of events in international politics, as well as a volume entirely dedicated to the Theory of Prevision and its applications in the field of international relations and strategic studies (e-mail: ksb@unifi.it).

Italian foreign policy and strategy in an area of instability
(Italian foreign policy: methods of analysis and decisional process; Strategy, strategic planning and "grand national strategy"; The definition of strategic actor; Tension, crisis, conflict in an area of instability; The importance of prevision in strategic planning)
The analytic models AHP and "Catastrophe Theory"
(Attributing evaluations and priorities; The meaning of numerical values; The levels of the previsional hierarchy; The problem of defining the temporal horizon; The "Catastrophe Theory" model; The aim of the analysis; The procedure adopted)
Actors and strategies in the Balkan scenario: the "forward process" applied to the conflict in Bosnia
(The action of extra-regional actors in the Bosnian conflict; Evaluation of the relative importance of the actors; The previsional model for the Bosnian case; The singling out of the strategically important actors in the Balkans)
The conflict in Kosovo: the historical and geopolitical background
(The historical origins of the conflict; The ethnic distribution and the demographic factor; Kosovo before and during the disintegration of Yugoslavia; The "Republic of Kosovo" faced with Serb reaction; Internal actors and strategies in Kosovo after the Dayton Agreement; The political strategic importance of the region)
Definition of the previsional scenarios for Kosovo
(The important actors; The objectives and strategies of the actors in Kosovo; The modelling of objectives and strategies; The scenarios; Prospects for the future development of the conflict in Kosovo)
Albania: the possibility to make previsions faced with the challenge of a "catastrophic" event
(The historical origins of the discontent; The origin and dynamics of the Albanian crisis in the light of the "Catastrophe Theory"; Democratisation and unavoidable crisis in Albania; The Albanian crisis: the tendency of the development and the impact on the stability of the area; The issue of Kosovo after the Albanian crisis)
Conclusions: strategies for Italy .

Contributors:

Serie: Politica - Studi

Subjects: Foreign Policy, International Relations

Level: Scholarly Research